Monday, May 19, 2008

Just for the Cubs Fans out there....

Okay, so in the name of full partial disclosure, the reason this post is happening is because I found a really great video that's probably like a year old, but pretty hysterical and offensive to Cubbies fans. This entire post is building towards said video... but today, I'm going to pontificate on the chances of the Cubs to actually win a championship. Yes Jeff Passan, I too can speak from a wrongfully acquired position of authority! And I know you'll see this... because you read blogs!

All areas will be given a grade based on partial stats taken from small sample sizes which have occurred this season and past player performance in some random way (PSTSSSWHOTSPPPSRW, because the acronym will make that easier to remember):

Starting Pitching - Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill

Okay, Carlos Zambrano is awesome. Props to him on that. However, statistically speaking, he's not the best in this group. Somebody... has thrown 57 innings at a 189 ERA+. And it's not Ted Lilly. And it's not Jason Marquis or Rich Hill either! Can you guess who it is? Yeah. Ryan Dumpster. That's not gonna hold up, not, not, not, no fucking way, not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1asdkfjas2134


Infield: Geovany Soto, Derek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, Aramis Ramirez

Okay, I'm calling bullshit on Ryan Theriot hitting .331/.410/.413, there's no fucking way that holds up. Mark DeRosa On-Basing .406 looks pretty wrong too, but Soto and Ramirez are nice offensive players, and Derek Lee's starting to look more like his old self again, so even after Theriot and DeRosa go the way of Ryan Dempster, the infield will still be able to hit. I'm not going to talk about defense... because there aren't any really reliable metrics, and I don't care about the +/- 10 runs a season worth of difference that it's going to make.


Outfield: Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Jim Edmonds' Dead Body, Felix "Scooter" Pie, Reed Johnson

I'll say this again. Alfonso Soriano's power is almost completely wasted in the leadoff spot. And his .328 OBP actually manages to fucking HURT the Cubs there.... because he's going to make wayyyy too many outs, and he's not going to get any chances to hit with runners on. The fucking guy is going to hit 35 solo home runs this year and make close to 500 outs. If they batted him in the 5-hole, where he belongs, he'd drive in 35-45 more runs this year, and probably make about 70 less outs, which would benefit his team all around. Seriously... swap Soriano and Fukudome in the lineup!! Put Fukudome's .416 OBP in the leadoff spot!! And Soriano's .592 SLG in the 5-hole!! Just try it!! Please!! I'm fucking begging you!!!!!!!!!! Oh, and get a Centerfielder... this Edmonds situation is embarrassing.


Relief Pitching: Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Sean Marshall, Jon Lieber, Kevin Hart

Kerry Wood still feels like Gagne, Jr. to me. I'm scared of him. Has he really only blown 3 saves so far? That's got to get worse, doesn't it? I love Marmol, but the rest of these guys have either seen better days (Howry, Wuertz)... or won't see days this good for long (Lieber). Whatever.


Bench Players, Manager, Blah Blah Intangibles, Grit, Hustle, Slow-Pulse-in-Trafficness

Here's a whole bunch of stuff that I don't believe to be hugely important so I'll put it together. I think Lou Pinella is a hugely overrated manager. I think more often than not, he coaches a baseball game sort of how I would... if I were drunk, under 4 feet tall, and wearing a clown costume. Soriano batting leadoff is a prime example of that to me. Marmol setting up for Gagne, Jr. is another. This team's biggest falling-off point for me is the idiot on the bench that's going to waste 50 runs this year by forcing Soriano to hit 35 solo home runs.

PSTSSSWHOTSPPPSRW: F- -, haha, that looks sinister! F minus minus!!


So what does that all basically mean? Here's what it means...

1 comment:

  1. For the record, I place the Cubs chances of going to the World Series this season at around 10 to 15%. The only teams I'd guestimate with much better chances than that right now are Anaheim, Boston and Arizona.