1) Ryan Dumpster went back to the Cubs. Which probably means very little, because he's not going to win 17 games with an ERA+ of 151 again next year. I'm still stunned that he did it once.
2) C.C. Sabathia is being chased by everybody. The Yankees, Brewers, Angels, Giants, maybe the Red Sox and Mets. Which still means that he's probably going to end up a Yankee. From what I understand, the Yankees philosophy regarding Sabathia is that 6 years, $140 Million was their starting point. If Sabathia wants more, all he's got to do is ask for it.
It's very hard to imagine Sabathia, in this day and age, choosing to take $30-$40 Million dollars less to play in San Francisco. In fact, it's very hard to imagine anybody, in the history of ever, anywhere, actually WANTING to take $30 to $40 Million dollars less than they're being offered to do something, because that's a ton of money. That's Dustin Pedroia's entire new contract. Think about your salary. Then think about taking a 30 or 40% paycut... and tell me what you think of that. So yeah. He'll be a Yankee.
3) Dustin Pedroia got a new contract. Which, again, means very little. It means that he can stuff his boots with hundred dollar bills, and prop himself up a little bit. Like Tom Cruise does. And when he's done, maybe he'll stand a full five feet tall. I still think his Rookie of the Year and MVP awards are incredible fucking travesties. But whatever. He'll be in Boston for a long time.
4) People really think Derek Lowe's a good pitcher. How did this happen? Seriously? How? Did Derek Lowe hijack a fucking satellite-mounted laser beam and threaten to vaporize every kitten in America if anybody talks about the fact, that he's a slightly above average pitcher in a terrible division, and is on the wrong side of 35 years of age? What is causing people to have a Titsworth over Derek Lowe?
5) The Yankees didn't offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu or Andy Pettitte. Everybody is claiming that this is because of the poor economy and financial crunch. They're saying that the Yankees don't want to pay $16 Million each for these guys in arbitration. These people are about 33% correct.
The Yankees don't want Bobby Abreu or Andy Pettitte on their team next year. At all. Abreu's looking for 3 years, $45 Million on the free agent market. He's not going to get it. I doubt anybody's going to go beyond 2 years, with a club option 3rd for Abreu. And I'd guess the annual value will top out around $12 Million. So if your best offer is 2 years, $24 Million, what do you do? You take arbitration from the Yankees and make $16 Million for one more year. And then the Yankees are stuck with Abreu, in addition to Nady, Matsui, Damon and Swisher. There's no room for Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera. Or Manny Ramirez. Or Adam Dunn.
And as for Pettitte, is he really worth $16 Million? He'd take arbitration in a heartbeat if it was offered. Would you rather spend that money on Andy Pettitte, or Ben Sheets? How about A.J. Burnett? Mark Teixeira? Manny Ramirez? Adam Dunn? Or Andy Pettitte? They don't want him back. They offered him a 1 year, $10 Million, take-it-or-leave-it contract. Does that sound like somebody the Yankees want?
5) Adam Dunn wasn't offered arbitration by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Which was a pretty stupid decision. Why? 40 homers and 100+ RBI every year. That's why. Despite the low batting average, Dunn gets on base and hits for a ton of power. The Yankees would love to grab him, but might have jumped at Nick Swisher a little too fast. Boston also might take a hard look, especially since they don't have to surrender draft picks. The Mets would be completely retarded not to try and sign this guy. The bottom line is... somebody is going to sign him. For a bunch of years, and a bunch of dollars. The D'Backs should have gotten some draft picks for it.
And on a completely unrelated note... why didn't anybody tell me about Tim Tebow's girlfriend? She gets a tag. In fact, she gets two tags. One for her. And one for her giant breasts. Actually, two for her giant breasts... because without them, she wouldn't be getting a tag. I'm just repeating the phrase "giant breasts" so I have an excuse to link more pictures. You're welcome.
Showing posts with label Big Donkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Donkey. Show all posts
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Hot Topic: Things the New York Yankees Should Not Do This Off-Season...
The New York Daily News' sports cover today involved the New York Yankees and two pitchers: Jake Peavy and Carl Pavano.
The early word is that Brian Cashman is interested in cutting a deal to bring Pavano back around for another couple of years. That seemed like a really stupid idea, until I realized the following:
a) Pavano would probably only be re-signed to a bargain basement type of deal.
b) There's no way Cashman's dumb enough to actually rely on the guy. He'd sit on his ass in AAA and wait for a call as a spot starter.
So I guess, why the hell not, right? Sure, bring Carl back for another year!! But that got me thinking... what kind of things should the Yankees avoid doing at all costs? So I'm going to make a list.
1) Do not sign A.J. Burnett.
He's going to opt out. He's going to be looking for $16-18 Million per, for about 4 or 5 years. And in his 10 year career, he's made 30+ starts a grand total of twice. People are turned on by Burnett's 18 wins in 2008... but those people seem to be overlooking a couple of key numbers. Burnett's 105 ERA+ indicates that he was really only slightly better than league average... and his 1.342 WHIP is downright scary. To put this lightly, 18 wins from Burnett last year was fluky and will not be repeated any time soon. Just to be clear, we all realize that Burnett walked 86 guys last year, right? That's Oliver Perez/Barry Zito-type wildness. If that number jumps any higher, Burnett will earn the right to use the surname "Zambrano."
Still, the Yankees might go there, especially because of their long-standing tendency for going after guys who own them. In 11 career starts against the Yankees, Burnett's thrown 77 innings of 2.43 ERA baseball. To you and I, this is fluky, small sample size-type stuff that doesn't mean very much.
To a couple of kids who were raised by George Steinbrenner, I fear it could mean much more. I guess if they grab Burnett and re-sign Pavano, those dudes can chill together on the DL.
2) Do not re-sign Bobby Abreu.
What?! Doesn't that go against everything Mister Six usually digs? Guys with high OBPs? Patient hitters who take a ton of pitches? Busty Japanese girls dressed up as vampire schoolgirls for Halloween (no, I couldn't find a picture, but this will do)?
Yes, it does go against my usual beliefs, but here's why. Abreu is declining. He was solid last year, but not amazing. His BB have dropped a couple of years in a row. He's not getting any better. And there's really no room for him in my plans. I'd much rather see Nady in RF, and either Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn in Left Field.
Manny's a freak of nature, pure and simple. I went into this yesterday.
And the case for Adam Dunn seems to be a series of sixes. He's six years younger than Abreu. He's drawn 100+ walks for 6 straight years. And he's hit 40+ homers and driven in 100+ runs in 6 straight years. Sure, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot... but because he strikes out a lot, he's hit into 14 double plays in the last 2 years combined. Abreu rolled in 14 last year alone, and 25 for the last 2 years. So in a twisted sort of way, it evens out.
3) Don't get any bright ideas about guys like Casey Blake.
Brian Cashman's usually good about this sort of thing. He doesn't usually fall into the "grit/hustle/heart" trap that lures lesser GMs to sign guys like David Eckstein, Eric Byrnes and Darren Erstad to inflated contracts despite statistical evidence that states that they're not very good at baseball, and probably won't stay healthy. Cashman's not usually the kind of guy who's out there looking to sign the next Scott Brosius.
Scottie, if you happen to browse over this, I'm not attacking you. Well... now that I look at the numbers, I guess I'm kinda going to attack you. After 1998, you weren't very good. And speaking of 1998... how did you get caught stealing 8 times in 19 attempts? That's terrible!! What idiot kept giving you the green light? You were a lot of things... but fleet of foot, you were not. Maybe somebody'll bring that up during Joe Torre's Bestest Manager in the World Induction Ceremony. "Hung Brosius out to dry 8 times in 1998. Pioneered Ozzie Guillen's Smartball Technique, where a team scores runs by getting slow-footed runners caught stealing."
Back to Casey Blake. How do I put this lightly? Casey Blake sucks at baseball. He didn't make it as a full-time guy until he was 29. Over a full season, he's going to hit about 20 homers, he's going to walk about 11 times, strike out about 120 times, and get on base about 10% less than Mark Teixeira. People are talking about Blake as a first baseman. He's played 105 out of 950 career games there. Adam Dunn has seen more games at first base than Casey Blake... and hits twice as many homers. And gets on base more. And has a cool nickname. Big Donkey. The Big Donkey vs. The Big Father, David Ortiz (sorry, I don't speak Spanish.)
4) Don't sign Derek Lowe.
I talked about this already. So I'll try to summarize.
Lowe is 35.
He pitches in the worst hitting division in baseball.
He's coming off the second-best season of his career.
And his best year since he won 21 in Boston in 2002.
And he's 35.
And pitches in the NL West.
Where instead of bats, people swing replica Dustin Diamond sex-toys.
5) Don't deal Robinson Cano or Phil Hughes.
Hughes was the top-rated pitching prospect in the country. For a while. That kind of potential doesn't fizzle out because of some minor, naggy-type injuries. Johan Santana didn't start dominating until he was 25. Josh Beckett dealt with naggy-type injuries until about the same time. Sabathia really showed what he was about at 26.
Phil Hughes is going to be 23. It's too early to give up on him. Period.
Robinson Cano is 25. He's a career .303/.335/.468 hitter. He has developing power. He struggled last year, which means one of two things. Either... he's a fluke who will never produce again.... or he had a bad year after signing a big contract extension. We should examine that over the next year, and make a determination regarding which it is.
My guess is, Cano bounces back, bats .300/.350/.500 with 40+ doubles, 20+ homers, and 90+ RBIs. The question is... would you rather him do that in New York or San Diego?
If the Padres really want to deal Jake Peavy, offer them an all-you-can-eat-buffet of second-tier prospects. Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne, Darrel Rasner, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Humberto Sanchez, anybody named Duncan, Juan Miranda... Ian Kennedy?
No Hughes. No Cano. No Jesus Montero. No Chamberlain. And no Austin Jackson.
Peavy's coming from the NL West (See: Derek Lowe), so in the AL East, there's a pretty good chance that his ERA's going to bump up by about a run and a half... and if it does, do we really want to watch Phil Hughes winning 20 games a year pitching in the AAAA NL West?
The early word is that Brian Cashman is interested in cutting a deal to bring Pavano back around for another couple of years. That seemed like a really stupid idea, until I realized the following:
a) Pavano would probably only be re-signed to a bargain basement type of deal.
b) There's no way Cashman's dumb enough to actually rely on the guy. He'd sit on his ass in AAA and wait for a call as a spot starter.
So I guess, why the hell not, right? Sure, bring Carl back for another year!! But that got me thinking... what kind of things should the Yankees avoid doing at all costs? So I'm going to make a list.
1) Do not sign A.J. Burnett.
He's going to opt out. He's going to be looking for $16-18 Million per, for about 4 or 5 years. And in his 10 year career, he's made 30+ starts a grand total of twice. People are turned on by Burnett's 18 wins in 2008... but those people seem to be overlooking a couple of key numbers. Burnett's 105 ERA+ indicates that he was really only slightly better than league average... and his 1.342 WHIP is downright scary. To put this lightly, 18 wins from Burnett last year was fluky and will not be repeated any time soon. Just to be clear, we all realize that Burnett walked 86 guys last year, right? That's Oliver Perez/Barry Zito-type wildness. If that number jumps any higher, Burnett will earn the right to use the surname "Zambrano."
Still, the Yankees might go there, especially because of their long-standing tendency for going after guys who own them. In 11 career starts against the Yankees, Burnett's thrown 77 innings of 2.43 ERA baseball. To you and I, this is fluky, small sample size-type stuff that doesn't mean very much.
To a couple of kids who were raised by George Steinbrenner, I fear it could mean much more. I guess if they grab Burnett and re-sign Pavano, those dudes can chill together on the DL.
2) Do not re-sign Bobby Abreu.
What?! Doesn't that go against everything Mister Six usually digs? Guys with high OBPs? Patient hitters who take a ton of pitches? Busty Japanese girls dressed up as vampire schoolgirls for Halloween (no, I couldn't find a picture, but this will do)?
Yes, it does go against my usual beliefs, but here's why. Abreu is declining. He was solid last year, but not amazing. His BB have dropped a couple of years in a row. He's not getting any better. And there's really no room for him in my plans. I'd much rather see Nady in RF, and either Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn in Left Field.
Manny's a freak of nature, pure and simple. I went into this yesterday.
And the case for Adam Dunn seems to be a series of sixes. He's six years younger than Abreu. He's drawn 100+ walks for 6 straight years. And he's hit 40+ homers and driven in 100+ runs in 6 straight years. Sure, Adam Dunn strikes out a lot... but because he strikes out a lot, he's hit into 14 double plays in the last 2 years combined. Abreu rolled in 14 last year alone, and 25 for the last 2 years. So in a twisted sort of way, it evens out.
3) Don't get any bright ideas about guys like Casey Blake.
Brian Cashman's usually good about this sort of thing. He doesn't usually fall into the "grit/hustle/heart" trap that lures lesser GMs to sign guys like David Eckstein, Eric Byrnes and Darren Erstad to inflated contracts despite statistical evidence that states that they're not very good at baseball, and probably won't stay healthy. Cashman's not usually the kind of guy who's out there looking to sign the next Scott Brosius.
Scottie, if you happen to browse over this, I'm not attacking you. Well... now that I look at the numbers, I guess I'm kinda going to attack you. After 1998, you weren't very good. And speaking of 1998... how did you get caught stealing 8 times in 19 attempts? That's terrible!! What idiot kept giving you the green light? You were a lot of things... but fleet of foot, you were not. Maybe somebody'll bring that up during Joe Torre's Bestest Manager in the World Induction Ceremony. "Hung Brosius out to dry 8 times in 1998. Pioneered Ozzie Guillen's Smartball Technique, where a team scores runs by getting slow-footed runners caught stealing."
Back to Casey Blake. How do I put this lightly? Casey Blake sucks at baseball. He didn't make it as a full-time guy until he was 29. Over a full season, he's going to hit about 20 homers, he's going to walk about 11 times, strike out about 120 times, and get on base about 10% less than Mark Teixeira. People are talking about Blake as a first baseman. He's played 105 out of 950 career games there. Adam Dunn has seen more games at first base than Casey Blake... and hits twice as many homers. And gets on base more. And has a cool nickname. Big Donkey. The Big Donkey vs. The Big Father, David Ortiz (sorry, I don't speak Spanish.)
4) Don't sign Derek Lowe.
I talked about this already. So I'll try to summarize.
Lowe is 35.
He pitches in the worst hitting division in baseball.
He's coming off the second-best season of his career.
And his best year since he won 21 in Boston in 2002.
And he's 35.
And pitches in the NL West.
Where instead of bats, people swing replica Dustin Diamond sex-toys.
5) Don't deal Robinson Cano or Phil Hughes.
Hughes was the top-rated pitching prospect in the country. For a while. That kind of potential doesn't fizzle out because of some minor, naggy-type injuries. Johan Santana didn't start dominating until he was 25. Josh Beckett dealt with naggy-type injuries until about the same time. Sabathia really showed what he was about at 26.
Phil Hughes is going to be 23. It's too early to give up on him. Period.
Robinson Cano is 25. He's a career .303/.335/.468 hitter. He has developing power. He struggled last year, which means one of two things. Either... he's a fluke who will never produce again.... or he had a bad year after signing a big contract extension. We should examine that over the next year, and make a determination regarding which it is.
My guess is, Cano bounces back, bats .300/.350/.500 with 40+ doubles, 20+ homers, and 90+ RBIs. The question is... would you rather him do that in New York or San Diego?
If the Padres really want to deal Jake Peavy, offer them an all-you-can-eat-buffet of second-tier prospects. Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne, Darrel Rasner, Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Humberto Sanchez, anybody named Duncan, Juan Miranda... Ian Kennedy?
No Hughes. No Cano. No Jesus Montero. No Chamberlain. And no Austin Jackson.
Peavy's coming from the NL West (See: Derek Lowe), so in the AL East, there's a pretty good chance that his ERA's going to bump up by about a run and a half... and if it does, do we really want to watch Phil Hughes winning 20 games a year pitching in the AAAA NL West?
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